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A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician fleet: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

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A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician fleet: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

Colla-De-Robertis, Esteban; Da Rocha Álvarez, José María; García Cutrín, Francisco Javier; Gutiérrez, María José; Prellezo, Raúl
 
DATE : 2019-01
UNIVERSAL IDENTIFIER : http://hdl.handle.net/11093/1192
UNESCO SUBJECT : 5312.01 Agricultura, Silvicultura, Pesca
DOCUMENT TYPE : article

ABSTRACT :

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%

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