Performance assessment in water polo using compositional data analysis

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to identify groups of offensive performance indicators which best discriminated between a match score (favourable, balanced or unfavourable) in water polo. The sample comprised 88 regular season games (2011-2014) from the Spanish Professional Water Polo League. The offensive performance indicators were clustered in five groups: Attacks in relation to the different playing situations; Shots in relation to the different playing situations; Attacks outcome; Origin of shots; Technical execution of shots. The variables of each group had a constant sum which equalled 100%. The data were compositional data, therefore the variables were changed by means of the additive log-ratio (alr) transformation. Multivariate discriminant analyses to compare the match scores were calculated using the transformed variables. With regard to the percentage of right classification, the results showed the group that discriminated the most between the match scores was “Attacks outcome” (60.4% for the original sample and 52.2% for cross-validation). The performance indicators that discriminated the most between the match scores in games with penalties were goals (structure coefficient (SC) = .761), counterattack shots (SC = .541) and counterattacks (SC = .481). In matches without penalties, goals were the primary discriminating factor (SC = .576). This approach provides a new tool to compare the importance of the offensive performance groups and their effect on the match score discrimination.