Influence of Canary upwelling system on coastal SST warming along the 21st century using CMIP6 GCMs

Abstract

Climate change is causing the global sea surface temperature (SST) to rise. However, warming rates are lower in coastal areas affected by the upwelling that buffers the SST warming. The influence of the Canary upwelling system on coastal SST throughout the 21st century was analyzed taking advantage of the high spatial resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 project to capture upwelling features. Future SST changes were evaluated both on the coast and in their oceanic counterparts under the 5–8.5 socioeconomic pathway scenario. Results showed a latitudinal displacement of the upwelling system to the north by the end of the century. Middle and north latitudes showed a strengthening in the buffering effect of upwelling with a greater influence on the differences between coast and ocean. Oppositely, the southernmost latitudes showed a weakening causing a homogenization of the SST between coast and ocean.