PLS-PM analysis of forest fires using remote sensing tools. The case of Xurés in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve

Abstract

Forest fires have environmental, social and economic impacts in many areas. Various factors related to territory directly influence both the number and the surface area of each fire. The link between different variables (climate, social and environmental) in the risk of fire and in the characteristics of fires is studied here through Partial Least Squares - Path Models. In addition, images from the Sentinel-2 sensor and geographic information systems are used to create a cartographic base of fires in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Galicia and the Site of Community Importance of Xurés (Galicia) between 2015 and 2020. In all, seven variables are analyzed in this study area using the partial least squares-path modeling method: climate, topography, land use, type of environmental protection, the anthropogenic factor, fire defense, and fire data (severity and area). The parameters for each variable are used to obtain weights and thus determine the importance of each one. The areas where the problem of forest fires is greatest are those with the greatest environmental protection. Up to 31% of the surface area of the Natura 2000 Network was burned in the 6-year study period. Topography and land use are also shown to be relevant factors in the effects of forest fires in this territory. By contrast, higher population density and the development of infrastructures such as roads and water tanks mitigate the impact of fires. The problem of forest fires encompasses many variables that need to be studied. By contextualizing each study area as far as possible, specific measures to prevent and reduce damage can be drawn up.