Modelling the impact land use change on flood risk: Umia (Spain) and Voglajna (Slovenia) case studies

Abstract

Accurate quantification and assessment flood hazards is critical for mitigation and prevention. This study proposes a methodological framework for analysing this hazard and its relationship to agricultural and forestry land use. The objective is to obtain an integrative methodology based on the HEC-HMS model and to apply different simulations, with land use changes as indicator in two different study areas, taking into account the different characteristics of each basin and the different regulations of each area. This was done in two river basins, the Umia Basin (north-western Spain) and the Voglajna Basin (eastern Slovenia). The hydrological models obtained showed a very high performance in the calibration and validation periods. In the Umia River Basin agricultural use has priority over forestry, with food security taking precedence over water security. Reforestation only upstream has been shown to be almost as beneficial as reforestation throughout the basin. However, the use of abandoned land currently limits the reduction of peak discharge. Nevertheless, for an event designed with a 100-years return period, a reduction of about 12% was achieved. The increase in agricultural use promoted by the administration could increase this peak by about 6%, thus increasing the flood hazard, but it has been shown that this use on less permeable soils and upstream would not significantly increase this peak (<1% for the event studied). On the other hand, the Voglajna Basin has a smaller catchment area and fragmented land use, and a mosaic landscape. For the 100-years return period the reduction in peak discharge is only few percent compared to the baseline scenario even if 30% of the agricultural land (about 7% of the total area) is changed to forest land use. The information provided by the simulations is a useful indicator that can be incorporated into management plans to ensure appropriate decision making by the administration. Not only for the application of nature-based solutions (NBS) and providing evidence-base for the NBS and the reduction of flood risk, but such information is key when the use changes from forestry to agriculture and vice versa, as it provides tools to ensure food and water security. In both case studies it was demonstrated how stakeholders need to undertake optimal and strategic planning and management in order to reduce the risk of flooding. In turn, the use of this modelling, as well as the calculation of scenarios from a perspective that not only evaluates different land use changes, but also incorporates different regulations, is presented as an innovative and realistic analysis.