RT Journal Article
T1 Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
A1 Almeida, Alice Maria
A1 Martins, Maria João
A1 Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras
A1 Fernandez, Paulo
A1 Albuquerque, Teresa
A1 Gerassis Davite, Saki
A1 Gonçalves, José Carlos
A1 Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
K1 2502 Climatología
K1 3106.01 Conservación
K1 3106 Ciencia Forestal
AB Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur.
PB Scientific Reports
SN 20452322
YR 2022
FD 2022-01-07
LK http://hdl.handle.net/11093/4520
UL http://hdl.handle.net/11093/4520
LA eng
NO Scientific Reports, 12(1): 84 (2022)
NO Programa Operacional Regional do Centro | Ref. Centro-01-0145-FEDER-000019 – C4 – Centro de Competências em Cloud Computing
DS Investigo
RD 06-oct-2024